Drawdown Recovery Calculator
This drawdown calculator shows what it takes to climb back from a loss. Enter the drawdown from your peak balance, the percentage you risk per trade, your average win in R and your win rate. It returns the percentage gain needed to recover, the number of winning trades in a row that would do it, and the number of trades it takes on average at your win rate. A table shows the same figures for drawdowns from 5% to 90%.
| Drawdown | Gain needed | Wins in a row at these settings |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 5.3% | 3 |
| 10% | 11.1% | 6 |
| 15% | 17.6% | 9 |
| 20% | 25.0% | 12 |
| 25% | 33.3% | 15 |
| 30% | 42.9% | 19 |
| 40% | 66.7% | 26 |
| 50% | 100.0% | 36 |
| 60% | 150.0% | 47 |
| 75% | 300.0% | 71 |
| 90% | 900.0% | 117 |
Each trade risks the set percentage of the current balance. “Trades needed on average” uses the average growth per trade for your win rate and reward; real recoveries vary widely around it and costs are not included.
How to use the drawdown recovery calculator in 4 steps
- Enter the drawdown. The fall from your highest balance, in percent. From €10,000 down to €7,500 is a 25% drawdown.
- Enter your risk per trade and average win. The percentage of the current balance risked on each trade, and the size of an average win in R.
- Enter your win rate. From your journal or backtest. It is used for the average number of trades.
- Read the result and the table. Compare the gain needed with the trades it takes. The table shows how quickly the task grows beyond a 30% drawdown.
Why losses need bigger gains to recover
A drawdown is the fall from the highest balance to a later low. Once the account is smaller, every percentage gain is earned on less money, so the gain needed to get back is always larger than the loss:
Gain needed = drawdown ÷ (1 − drawdown)
Wins in a row = ln(1 ÷ (1 − drawdown)) ÷ ln(1 + risk × R)
Average trades = ln(1 ÷ (1 − drawdown)) ÷ [p × ln(1 + risk × R) + (1 − p) × ln(1 − risk)]A 10% loss needs 11.1%, a 25% loss 33.3%, a 50% loss 100% and a 75% loss 300%. Up to about 20% the difference is small; beyond 30% it runs away from you.
Counting trades instead of percentages
With fixed-fractional sizing, each winning trade grows the balance by risk × R. At 1% risk and 2 R wins, each win adds 2%:
- 10% drawdown: 6 wins in a row (11 at 1 R)
- 20% drawdown: 12 wins in a row (23 at 1 R)
- 25% drawdown: 15 wins in a row (29 at 1 R)
- 50% drawdown: 36 wins in a row (70 at 1 R)
Nobody wins 36 trades in a row, so the realistic figure is the average. With a 45% win rate, 2 R wins and 1% risk, a 25% drawdown takes about 86 trades on average to recover, and the spread around that figure is wide. If the average trade has no edge, the calculator shows “never”, because on average the balance keeps drifting.
What the numbers mean for risk management
The asymmetry is the reason most risk rules are built around preventing deep drawdowns rather than recovering from them: small risk per trade, daily and weekly loss limits, and cutting size during a losing run. Raising the risk to win it back faster is the classic route from a 25% drawdown to a 50% one; see trading psychology. To see how likely a given drawdown is in the first place, use the risk of ruin calculator, and size each trade with the position size calculator. The full explanation, including drawdown rules and how to tell a normal drawdown from a broken strategy, is in drawdown and recovery.
Frequently asked questions
How much do I need to recover from a 50% loss?
A 100% gain: the account has to double. €10,000 down to €5,000 needs €5,000 made on €5,000. At 1% risk per trade and 2 R wins, that is 36 winning trades in a row, or about 70 at 1 R.
What gain recovers a 20% or 25% drawdown?
25% and 33.3%. The formula is drawdown ÷ (1 − drawdown). At 1% risk per trade with 2 R winners, a 20% drawdown takes 12 straight wins and a 25% drawdown 15; with a 45% win rate the average is about 86 trades for the 25% case.
Should I increase my risk to recover faster?
Raising risk after losses speeds up the good case and makes a deeper drawdown more likely in the bad one, which is how many accounts go from a recoverable loss to an unrecoverable one. Many traders do the opposite and cut risk until the drawdown has eased.
Why does the calculator show “never”?
With the win rate and average win you entered, the average trade loses money (or the percentage sizing drags growth below zero), so on average the balance does not recover at all. Change the inputs, or look at the strategy rather than the sizing.
Risk warning
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Most retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Figures are arithmetic from the inputs you enter, before costs, and are not a forecast. The PIP Report is a publisher of financial information and education and is not authorised or regulated by CySEC or any other financial regulator. See the full risk warning and our editorial policy.
Not investment advice. This is general information and education, written without knowledge of your circumstances. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Trading leveraged products carries a high risk of losing money. Risk warning