Forex week in review 32/2026: payrolls turn negative and gold jumps 6.5%

The big currency move came last week, when Japan and the United States bought yen together and USD/JPY dropped more than 600 pips. This week the dust settled, at least in FX. EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY all finished within 0.3% of where they started. The action moved elsewhere: oil fell sharply on hopes of a deal over the Strait of Hormuz, gold futures jumped 6.5%, and Friday’s US jobs report showed the first negative payroll print in this series of recaps, which knocked back expectations of a Fed rate hike in September.

A flat week on the major pairs is a useful reminder that a currency pair only shows you the relative story. The dollar weakened on Friday, but it had strengthened on Thursday. Add the two together and you get a quiet weekly candle that hides a lot of movement.

The week at a glance

• EUR/USD +0.08% to 1.1562, trading between 1.1505 and 1.1582.
• GBP/USD flat at 1.3493.
• USD/JPY +0.29% to 157.75 after a Monday low of 155.22.
• USD/CAD −0.53% to 1.3936, with the loonie one of the week’s better performers.
• COMEX gold futures +6.5% to $4,399.70.
• Brent crude futures fell from about $90 to $83.55, according to Yahoo Finance data.
• The S&P 500 gained about 3.5%, its best week since April according to investingLive.
• The US 10-year yield finished around 4.64%.

Weekly opens and closes come from Yahoo Finance hourly data; your broker’s prices may differ by a few pips.

Day by day

Weekend and Monday 3 August: the US confirms, oil slides, ISM surprises

Over the weekend the Trump administration acknowledged that the US Treasury had bought yen alongside Japan on Friday 31 July. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pointed to the yen’s “substantial undervaluation” in a social media post, according to a Reuters column. When Asian markets reopened, USD/JPY dropped to 155.22, its lowest of the week, before recovering above 156.

In the US session the ISM manufacturing index for July came in at 55.6 against 54.0 expected and 53.3 in June, the strongest reading in more than four years. The employment component rose to 52.8, back above 50 for the first time in 33 months, while prices paid eased to 71.1 from 73.0. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q3 rose to 6.2%.

Strong data would normally lift yields and the dollar. Instead oil dominated. WTI fell 5.56% to $79.96 as worries about an immediate disruption to Middle East supply eased, and headlines suggested the US had made a concession to Iran on Hormuz. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 6.7 basis points to about 4.67%, and the S&P 500 rose 1.50%. The yen was the strongest major on the day. Canadian markets were closed for the Civic Holiday.

Tuesday 4 August: “progress” on the Strait, tech rallies

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there had been “progress on reopening Strait. Nothing final but hoping agreement will happen very shortly”. WTI fell another $4.61 to about $75.73. US stocks surged, with the S&P 500 up 2.0% and the Nasdaq up 2.8%, driven by chipmakers.

Data were secondary. JOLTS job openings came in at 7.359 million against 7.400 million expected, June factory orders fell 0.3% against a 0.2% rise expected, and the US trade deficit was 73.3 billion dollars. Canada posted a trade surplus of 3.86 billion against 3.0 billion expected. The Australian dollar led the majors and the yen lagged as risk appetite improved. investingLive noted continued dip buying in USD/JPY despite comments from Bessent, a sign that the interest rate gap was reasserting itself.

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said the July vote “was not a close call” for her and that underlying inflation was too high.

Wednesday 5 August: gold breaks out

Spot gold rose $169 to about $4,245 according to investingLive, a 4% jump in a single session, after spending five weeks building a base around $4,000. investingLive said it was unclear what started the buying but pointed to peace hopes, dollar weakness tied to the intervention, and a positive risk tone. The Canadian dollar was the strongest major, helped by gold; Canada is a significant gold producer.

US data were softer. ISM services came in at 54.1 against 54.5 expected and ADP private payrolls rose 44,000 against 70,000 expected. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, one of July’s dissenters, said he would “rather get going with small hikes now rather than wait”. The 10-year yield edged down to 4.61%.

Thursday 6 August: the dollar bounces

Thursday reversed some of the week’s moves. Initial jobless claims beat expectations and productivity data were strong, according to investingLive, and the 2-year yield rose more than 7 basis points. WTI jumped 3.60% to $77.93 on reports that Iran was considering restricting US and Israeli vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Market pricing for a September Fed hike rose to around 56%. The dollar gained against every major, most against the franc (0.68%) and yen (0.45%).

Friday 7 August: payrolls turn negative

The July employment report was the week’s main event. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 against an 80,000 gain expected (LSEG consensus, per Fox Business). Revisions cut May to 63,000 and June to 20,000, a combined 103,000 lower than previously reported. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% from 4.2%, but largely because participation fell to 61.4%. Average hourly earnings rose 3.2% year on year, below the 3.5% expected.

The dollar fell broadly. Odds of a September hike dropped below 50%, according to investingLive. USD/JPY fell from 158.35 to 157.04 as Japan’s finance minister again raised the prospect of intervention. The 10-year yield dropped 2.8 basis points to 4.64%, and spot gold rose about $106 to around $4,345.

Canada’s July jobs report was much stronger: employment rose 75,100 against 15,000 expected. That combination, weak US jobs and strong Canadian jobs, pushed USD/CAD to its lowest levels of the week.

Pair by pair

USD/JPY: intervention holds, for now

USD/JPY finished at 157.75, up slightly on the week but well below the 163–164 area of late July. The Monday low of 155.22 came immediately after the US confirmed its participation. After that, buyers returned on dips, which tells you the interest rate gap still pulls the pair higher. Both forces were visible within a single week: official action and verbal warnings capping rallies, and carry demand supporting dips.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD: going sideways at higher levels

EUR/USD held almost all of its post-Fed breakout, finishing at 1.1562. GBP/USD ended exactly where it began after a midweek dip to 1.3419. With US data mixed until Friday and no major European events, there was little reason for either pair to trend. Our guide to support and resistance explains how prior breakout levels can act as a floor in this kind of consolidation.

USD/CAD: two tailwinds for the loonie

USD/CAD fell 0.53% to 1.3936. Gold’s surge helped on Wednesday, and Friday’s jobs reports pulled in opposite directions for the two economies. Oil fell sharply, which on its own would hurt the Canadian dollar, but this week other factors outweighed it.

AUD/USD: risk appetite in action

AUD/USD rose 0.31% to 0.7071. The Aussie led on Tuesday’s rally in stocks and lagged on Thursday’s dollar bounce, behaving like the risk-sensitive currency it usually is.

Gold: the week’s big mover

COMEX gold futures rose 6.5% to $4,399.70, trading as high as $4,432. For a market of gold’s size, a weekly move of that magnitude is unusual. The combination of a weaker dollar on Friday, falling real yields after the payrolls report, and doubts about how long any Iran agreement might hold all supported prices.

Reading a jobs report properly

This week’s payrolls report is a good example of why the headline number is only the start. Here are the pieces that mattered:

1. The headline: −23,000 against +80,000 expected, a miss of more than 100,000 jobs.
2. Revisions: May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000. Revisions often matter as much as the new month because they change the trend.
3. Unemployment rate: it fell to 4.1%, which looks good, but it fell because fewer people were looking for work, not because more found jobs. Participation dropped to 61.4%.
4. Wages: average earnings growth of 3.2% year on year, below the 3.5% expected, eased fears of a wage-price spiral.

Taken together, the report pointed to a cooling labour market and less pressure on the Fed to raise rates. That is why yields and the dollar fell. Our guide to how economic data moves forex covers the main releases and how to read them.

Why gold and the dollar often move in opposite directions

Gold is priced in dollars. When the dollar weakens, gold becomes cheaper for buyers using other currencies, which tends to lift demand. Gold also pays no interest, so when real interest rates (yields minus expected inflation) fall, the opportunity cost of holding it falls too. This week both forces pointed the same way on Friday.

The relationship is not fixed. In late July, gold struggled even when the dollar weakened, because long-term yields were rising. Correlations shift with the driver.

For traders using CFDs on gold, note that ESMA rules cap retail leverage on gold at 20:1, lower than the 30:1 allowed on major currency pairs, because gold is more volatile. A 6.5% weekly move at 20:1 leverage is equivalent to a 130% change in the margin committed, in either direction. Our guide to leverage and margin explains the calculation, and ESMA leverage limits covers the rules.

A worked example: when a weekly candle hides the risk

Imagine a trader long EUR/USD at Monday’s open, 1.1553, with 1 standard lot. Each pip on EUR/USD is worth $10 per standard lot. By Friday’s close the position was up 9 pips, or about $90. On paper, a calm week.

But during the week the pair traded as low as 1.1505, 48 pips below entry. A trader with a 40-pip stop would have been stopped out for a $400 loss before the pair recovered. The weekly candle hides that. This is why where you place a stop-loss depends on the pair’s typical range, not just on a round number. The illustrative figures here ignore spreads and swaps, which would make the result slightly worse.

How market pricing swung in 24 hours

One of the clearest lessons this week came from rate expectations. On Thursday, after firm jobless claims and productivity data, market pricing put the chance of a September Fed hike at around 56%, according to investingLive. By Friday afternoon, after the payrolls miss, it had fallen below 50%. Nothing about the Fed itself changed in those 24 hours. What changed was the data the Fed would be looking at.

This is how most currency moves around data releases work. The market holds a probability for each possible central bank outcome, expressed through futures and swap prices. Each new data point nudges those probabilities. The currency moves with the change in expected interest rates, and the size of the move depends on how big the surprise was relative to consensus. A payrolls miss of more than 100,000 jobs is large, so the reaction was large.

For anyone holding positions over a major release, this matters more than the direction you expect. If pricing can move from 56% to below 50% in a day, the currency can move a long way too, and spreads tend to widen in the minutes around the release. Our guide to spreads and commissions explains why.

Oil, importers and exporters

Oil’s fall this week also tells a currency story. Japan and the euro area import most of their energy, so lower oil prices improve their trade balances and ease their inflation problem. Canada and Norway are exporters, so lower oil is usually a headwind for their currencies. This week the Canadian dollar rose anyway, which shows that the oil channel is only one of several forces at work at any time.

What this week teaches

• Revisions and participation change the story. A falling unemployment rate can be bad news if it comes from people leaving the workforce.
• Flat weekly closes can hide large intraweek swings. EUR/USD moved 77 pips high to low but finished almost unchanged.
• Commodities matter for commodity currencies, but not alone. The Canadian dollar rose despite a sharp fall in oil, thanks to gold and strong domestic jobs data.
• Intervention leaves a lasting mark on risk. The yen stayed sensitive to every comment from Tokyo and Washington.
• Most retail CFD accounts lose money. Broker disclosures in the EU typically show between about 61% and 89% of retail accounts losing money; read why most retail CFD traders lose before sizing up after a good week.

Scheduled next week (10–14 August)

Events on the calendar, listed for planning only:

• Tuesday 11 August: Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision and Statement on Monetary Policy; Japanese markets closed for a public holiday.
• Wednesday 12 August: US CPI (July); US 10-year Treasury auction.
• Thursday 13 August: UK preliminary Q2 GDP; US PPI (July); US weekly jobless claims.
• Friday 14 August: US retail sales (July); preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (August); Canadian manufacturing sales (June).

Our guide to using an economic calendar explains how to read consensus, actual and previous figures.

For context on the intervention that set up this week, see last week’s recap.

Sources

• investingLive Americas FX news wrap, 3 August 2026
• investingLive Americas FX news wrap, 4 August 2026
• investingLive Americas market news wrap: gold storms higher, 5 August 2026
• investingLive FX news wrap, 6 August 2026
• investingLive Americas market news wrap: non-farm payrolls turn negative, 7 August 2026
• Fox Business: US economy unexpectedly shed jobs in July
• Reuters column via The Star: Making sense of the Trump Treasury’s odd FX intervention
• investingLive: economic calendar in Asia, Tuesday 11 August 2026
• Yahoo Finance gold futures historical data