FOMC meetings explained: the statement, dot plot and press conference

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the part of the US Federal Reserve that sets interest rates. It holds eight scheduled meetings a year, each over two days, and publishes its policy statement at 14:00 New York time on the second day, followed by the Chair's press conference at 14:30. Four of the eight meetings also include the Summary of Economic Projections, with the "dot plot" of officials' interest rate projections. Because the US dollar is on one side of most currency trades, an FOMC day is one of the biggest scheduled risk events of the forex calendar.

The broader picture, including the Fed's mandate and how rate expectations move currencies, is in central banks and interest rates. This guide is the practical companion: how a meeting day runs, what each document says, and why the dollar so often moves one way at 14:00 and the other way at 14:45.

Who is on the FOMC

The FOMC has twelve voting members:

• the seven members of the Board of Governors in Washington, including the Chair;
• the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who always votes;
• four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who vote on a one-year rotation.

All twelve regional presidents attend and take part in the discussion, whether or not they vote that year, and all of them, together with the governors, submit projections for the dot plot. So the dot plot can contain up to nineteen dots, even though only twelve people vote.

Votes are published in the statement, including any dissents and what the dissenting member preferred. A dissent in favour of a bigger or smaller move than the committee chose is a small but real piece of information about where policy may go next, and markets notice when the number of dissents changes.

The meeting schedule

Eight scheduled meetings, roughly every six to seven weeks. The 2027 schedule published by the Federal Reserve is:

• 26–27 January
• 16–17 March (with projections)
• 27–28 April
• 8–9 June (with projections)
• 27–28 July
• 14–15 September (with projections)
• 26–27 October
• 7–8 December (with projections)

The Fed notes that dates are tentative until confirmed, so check its FOMC calendar page before relying on any of them. Our quarterly calendars (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4) put each meeting in the context of the data around it.

The committee can also meet outside the schedule. Unscheduled meetings are rare and usually happen in a crisis: in March 2020, at the start of the pandemic, the Fed cut rates at two unscheduled meetings in quick succession. You cannot plan for those, which is one reason position sizing matters even on days with nothing on the calendar.

The blackout period

FOMC participants stop speaking publicly about monetary policy from the second Saturday before a meeting until midnight Eastern time on the day after the meeting ends. In the week or so before a decision, then, there are no speeches to shift expectations, and the market works from data and from what was said before the blackout. Fed speakers often return the day after the meeting, which can add a second wave of reaction.

How meeting day runs

All times New York, with London and Central European equivalents for the usual case. During the short daylight-saving gaps in March and late October to early November, the London and CET times are an hour earlier; the March 2027 meeting falls in such a gap, so its statement is at 18:00 London, 19:00 CET. The market hours tool shows the conversion for your location.

1. Before 14:00: liquidity thins through the afternoon. Many participants avoid opening new positions, and spreads on dollar pairs often start widening in the minutes before the release.
2. 14:00 (19:00 London, 20:00 CET): the policy statement is published, together with the implementation note that sets out the technical details. At projection meetings, the Summary of Economic Projections comes out at the same moment.
3. 14:30 (19:30 London, 20:30 CET): the Chair's press conference begins, with an opening statement followed by questions from journalists. It usually lasts close to an hour.
4. After the press conference: the reaction settles, often in thin liquidity, because Europe has closed for the day and the Asian session follows.

For a European trader, this means the decision lands in the evening, when the market is already thinner than during the London and New York overlap. Forex market hours and sessions explains why that matters for spreads.

The statement

The statement is a short document, a few paragraphs long, that gives the decision on the target range for the federal funds rate (always a range 0.25 percentage points wide), the committee's description of the economy, its guidance on future policy, and the votes.

The decision itself is rarely a surprise. Markets price the probability of each outcome in advance through fed funds futures, and by the meeting the decision is usually priced at or near 100%. What moves the dollar is the language.

Statements change slowly and deliberately, and analysts compare each one with the previous one word by word. A phrase dropped, added or modified can signal a change in direction. Illustrative example: if a statement that previously said the committee would consider "the extent of additional adjustments" drops the word "additional", the market may read that as a signal that the committee is closer to stopping. Several major news outlets and the Fed itself make it easy to compare versions side by side.

Language that leans towards higher rates for longer is described as hawkish; language that leans towards cuts or easier policy is dovish. Most statements are neither fully one nor the other, and the market weighs the tone against what it expected.

The Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot

At the March, June, September and December meetings, the Fed publishes the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). It contains each participant's projections for growth, unemployment and inflation over the next few years, summarised as medians and ranges, and the dot plot.

What the dot plot shows

Each dot is one participant's view of the appropriate midpoint of the federal funds rate range at the end of each of the next few years and in the longer run. The dots are anonymous. The market's attention goes mostly to the median dot for the current and next year, because it is the closest thing to a committee forecast of the rate path.

Worked example: reading the median

Illustrative numbers. Suppose there are nineteen participants, and their dots for the end of the year are:

• 3 participants at 4.375%
• 6 participants at 4.125%
• 7 participants at 3.875%
• 3 participants at 3.625%

With nineteen dots, the median is the tenth from the top. Counting down: three at 4.375% (dots 1 to 3), six at 4.125% (dots 4 to 9), and the tenth dot is the first of the seven at 3.875%. So the median is 3.875%.

Now suppose the current range is 4.00% to 4.25%, a midpoint of 4.125%. A median at 3.875% implies one quarter-point cut by year-end. If the market had priced two cuts, this would read as hawkish relative to expectations, and the dollar could rise even though the Fed is still projecting a cut.

Notice how fragile that median is: if one official had moved from 3.875% to 4.125%, the tenth dot would have been at 4.125%, and the median would show no cuts at all. Markets know this, and the dispersion of the dots often gets as much attention as the median.

What the dots are not

The dots are not a promise or a plan. They are individual projections, conditional on each person's economic forecast, and the committee has repeatedly stressed that policy depends on incoming data. Dots have often moved substantially from one SEP to the next. The market treats them as information about the committee's thinking, not as a schedule.

The press conference

The Chair has held a press conference after every meeting since 2019. It begins with a prepared opening statement, which largely repeats the policy statement, followed by questions.

The question-and-answer session is where unscripted signals come from: how the Chair characterises the latest data, whether a future move is described as likely or merely possible, how much weight is put on inflation versus employment. Because these answers come 30 minutes or more after the statement, the press conference often changes the market's first interpretation.

It is common to see the dollar move one way at 14:00 on the statement and dots, and then partly or fully reverse during the press conference as the Chair adds nuance. Treat the whole hour from 14:00 to roughly 15:00 New York as one event for risk purposes.

The minutes

Minutes of each meeting are published three weeks after the decision, at 14:00 New York time. They give a fuller account of the discussion, including how many participants held particular views ("several participants noted..."), and can show a committee more divided than the statement suggested. Minutes are a smaller event than the decision, but they can move the dollar, particularly when the market is unsure about the next step.

How FOMC decisions move currencies

The dollar responds to the change in the expected path of US rates relative to other countries' expected paths. A hawkish surprise tends to lift short-dated US Treasury yields and support the dollar against most currencies; a dovish surprise does the opposite, all else being equal. The interest rate differentials guide explains the connection, and the US Dollar Index guide covers how to see the broad dollar move in one number.

The reaction is spread across the market:

• Major dollar pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY take the most direct hit.
• Gold (XAU/USD) is sensitive to real US yields and often reacts sharply.
• US index CFDs react to the rate outlook too, so a portfolio of apparently different trades can turn out to be one bet on the Fed.
• Crosses without the dollar can still move, because a shift in US rates feeds into global bond yields and risk sentiment.

Worked example: the hour in practice

Illustrative. The market fully expects the Fed to hold rates and prices two cuts by year-end. At 14:00 the statement holds rates and the median dot shows only one cut. EUR/USD falls sharply as the dollar strengthens. At 14:30, asked whether one cut is the base case, the Chair stresses that the dots are not a plan and that several officials see room for more if inflation keeps easing. EUR/USD recovers much of the fall over the next 20 minutes.

A trader who sold EUR/USD on a stop order at 14:01 paid a widened spread, may have been filled with slippage, and then watched the trade move against them for half an hour. A trader who waited until the press conference ended saw both parts of the message before acting.

Managing FOMC risk

• Know the time in your time zone. 14:00 New York is evening in Europe and early morning in Asia, and the daylight-saving gaps shift it by an hour.
• Decide before the meeting. Close, reduce or hold with a resized stop, and write the decision down in your trading journal.
• Size for slippage. If you hold through, use a stop that allows for the full hour of volatility and a position small enough that a fill beyond the stop is acceptable. The position size calculator helps.
• Watch the evening liquidity. The reaction happens in a thinner market, so spreads may stay wider for longer than after a morning release.
• Check what else is near. In 2027, for example, the Bank of England announces the day after the Fed in July and September, which the ECB and BoE meetings guide covers.

Leveraged CFD trading carries a high risk of losing money quickly, and most retail accounts lose money. See the risk warning and the news trading risks guide.

Common mistakes

• Trading the decision instead of the surprise. A widely expected hold or cut is usually priced in before the meeting.
• Reacting to the 14:00 headline and ignoring 14:30. The press conference often changes the meaning.
• Treating the dot plot as a forecast. Dots are individual, conditional projections and change regularly.
• Ignoring the votes. A new dissent can matter more than an unchanged rate.
• Forgetting the minutes. Three weeks later, they can reopen the debate.
• Using a date from memory. Meetings move around each year, and the Fed marks dates as tentative.
• Holding unrelated-looking positions. Gold, US indices and several dollar pairs can all move on the same decision.

Frequently asked questions

How many times a year does the FOMC meet?

Eight scheduled meetings, each over two days, roughly every six to seven weeks. The committee can also hold unscheduled meetings, which are rare and usually connected to a crisis, such as the two unscheduled cuts in March 2020.

What time is the FOMC announcement?

The statement is released at 14:00 New York time on the second day of the meeting, which is usually 19:00 London and 20:00 Central European Time. The Chair's press conference follows at 14:30 New York time.

What is the dot plot?

A chart in the Summary of Economic Projections showing each participant's anonymous projection of the appropriate federal funds rate at the end of the next few years and in the longer run. It is published four times a year, in March, June, September and December, and the median dot is widely watched as an indication of the committee's thinking.

Why does the dollar sometimes fall when the Fed raises rates?

Because the hike was already priced in, and something else in the statement, dots or press conference was less hawkish than the market expected. Currencies react to the change in expectations, not to the decision itself.

When are the FOMC minutes released?

Three weeks after each meeting, at 14:00 New York time. They give a fuller account of the discussion and can move markets when they show a different balance of views than the statement suggested.

Does every FOMC meeting matter equally?

No. Meetings with projections tend to attract more attention because the dots and forecasts give the market more to react to, and meetings where the market is genuinely unsure about the decision carry more risk. But since every meeting now has a press conference, any of them can produce a surprise.