Forex recaps
Written after the week ends, with hindsight on purpose: what moved the major pairs, what moved them, and what a new trader should take from it. No calls, no signals.
Forex week in review 44/2026: three central bank holds, two Fed dissents and a gold sell-off
The Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan all left rates unchanged, but two Fed officials voted for a hike and the BoJ said underlying inflation had reached 2%. US GDP grew 3.4% and PCE inflation rose to 3.6%. The dollar index edged up 0.07%, EUR/USD fell 0.38% and gold dropped 3.7% to its lowest since October 2025.
Forex week in review 43/2026: Houthi attacks lift oil, the Aussie and sterling lead, gold breaks $4,000
Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and oil sites pushed Brent up 6.2% to $116.72, and markets sorted currencies by which central bank looked most likely to hike. AUD/USD jumped 1.28% on hawkish RBA comments, sterling gained after hot UK inflation, the yen rallied on a tech selloff, and gold had its worst week since June.
Forex week in review 42/2026: hot US inflation, and the dollar still ends lower
US CPI rose to 3.7% in September, above forecasts, and the dollar index briefly hit an 18-month high. Within a day the move had reversed as Fed officials played down an October hike and Treasury yields fell, leaving the dollar 0.36% lower on the week and sterling the standout gainer.
Forex week in review 41/2026: euro hits a 17-month low on France and Spain, Fed minutes stay hawkish
Political and fiscal worries in France and Spain dragged EUR/USD to its weakest level since May 2025 on Monday, while US 10-year yields touched 5.35% and the Fed minutes signalled another hike by year end. The dollar index added 0.27% on the week and gold bounced from a two-month low.
Forex week in review 40/2026: bond yields lift the dollar despite a weak jobs report
Long-dated US Treasury yields climbed to their highest since 2002 and the dollar index gained almost 1%, even though US inflation and payrolls both came in softer than forecast. EUR/USD fell 1.2% to a 17-month low area, the RBA hiked to 4.60% and gold had a second losing week.
Forex week in review 39/2026: hot PMIs, 2007-high yields and a stronger dollar
The dollar index rose to its highest since late July after US flash PMIs hit a five-year high and Treasury yields climbed to levels last seen in 2007. EUR/USD fell for a third straight week and AUD/USD dropped 1.4%, before Friday brought a partial pullback as oil eased and Tokyo pushed back on yen weakness.
Forex week in review 38/2026: Fed hikes, BoJ hikes, the dollar wins
The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 and signalled more to come, the Bank of England held with three votes for a hike, and the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25%. The dollar index closed above 100, EUR/USD broke below 1.15, and the yen weakened despite its own central bank's hike.
Forex week in review 37/2026: the ECB hikes and the yen squeeze runs on
USD/JPY broke below 155 on the US Labor Day holiday and touched 152.88 on Tuesday as traders unwound short-yen positions ahead of an expected Bank of Japan hike. The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% on Thursday, and Friday's US CPI showed core prices rising faster than forecast, keeping a Fed hike firmly in view.
Forex week in review 36/2026: the yen breaks free of 160
The yen had its strongest week in over a month as Bank of Japan officials opened the door to a September hike and USD/JPY fell from above 160 to near 155. A much stronger-than-expected US jobs report on Friday lifted Treasury yields but only partly revived the dollar.
Forex week in review 35/2026: Warsh turns hawkish at Jackson Hole
The dollar had its best week in roughly ten weeks after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole speech to say the Fed still has work to do on inflation. Two-year Treasury yields jumped, odds of a September hike rose, and USD/JPY pushed back above 160.
Forex week in review 34/2026: a Treasury buyback surprise sinks the dollar and lifts gold
The US Treasury doubled the size of its long-dated bond buybacks, and the dollar index fell to a three-month low as gold jumped more than 3% in a day. EUR/USD rose 0.86%, USD/CHF fell 1.48% and gold futures gained 5.6%, while UK and Canadian inflation both picked up.
Forex week in review 33/2026: in-line CPI, a retail sales slump and fading Fed hike bets
US CPI matched forecasts at 3.4%, producer prices undershot and July retail sales fell 0.6%, cutting the odds of a September Fed hike to around 30%. The RBA held at 4.35%, USD/JPY climbed back above 159 and the dollar ended a choppy week slightly weaker.
Forex week in review 32/2026: payrolls turn negative and gold jumps 6.5%
US payrolls fell by 23,000 in July against an 80,000 gain expected, pulling the odds of a September Fed hike below 50%. Gold futures rose 6.5% on the week, oil slid on Strait of Hormuz diplomacy and the yen held most of its intervention gains while the major dollar pairs finished almost flat.
Forex week in review 31/2026: intervention knocks USD/JPY off its 40-year high as the Fed splits
USD/JPY fell 3.8% after Japanese and, unusually, US authorities bought yen. The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% with three hawkish dissents, the BoE held 6–3, and the dollar index slipped back below 100.
Forex week in review 30/2026: the yen hits a 40-year low as oil spikes on Iran escalation
USD/JPY pushed to within a whisker of 164.00, its highest in 40 years, as US yields climbed and Brent crude briefly topped $100 on US–Iran escalation. The ECB held at 2.25%, sterling fell almost 1% and the dollar finished the week firmer against most majors.
Forex week in review 29/2026: a soft CPI, Warsh on the Hill and oil back near $90
US consumer prices fell 0.4% in June and core inflation was flat, both well below forecasts, and the dollar slipped even as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told Congress it was not "mission accomplished". Oil surged after Iran said it had closed the Strait of Hormuz again, the Canadian dollar hit its strongest level since mid-June and Andy Burnham was confirmed as Labour leader.
Forex week in review 28/2026: the US–Iran truce breaks down and the RBNZ surprises with a hike
Renewed US–Iran strikes and President Trump's verdict that the ceasefire was "over" sent oil sharply higher midweek, yet the major currencies finished almost where they started. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised many forecasters with a hike to 2.50%, sterling hit a three-week high as Andy Burnham's path to Downing Street cleared, and the Fed minutes showed broad concern about inflation.
Forex week in review 27/2026: a 57,000 payrolls miss and a holiday-shortened week cool the dollar
The yen sank to its weakest level against the dollar since 1986 on Wednesday, then June payrolls, released on Thursday because of the Independence Day holiday, came in at 57,000 against forecasts of about 110,000. The dollar ended a three-week run of gains and sterling had its best week in more than a month.
Forex week in review 26/2026: Starmer resigns, the dollar hits a 13-month high and gold breaks $4,000
The Fed's hawkish turn kept working through markets: the Dollar Index hit 101.80 on Wednesday, its highest in just over a year, and spot gold fell below $4,000 for the first time since November 2025. Sterling shrugged off the Prime Minister's resignation, while a soft Australian CPI print sank the Aussie.
Forex week in review 25/2026: Warsh's first Fed meeting trades cuts for hikes
A week that opened on hopes of a US–Iran deal ended with the dollar at its strongest level in over a year after Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting pushed the projected rate path higher. Sterling, the Swiss franc and the commodity currencies took the brunt, while the BoJ, RBA, SNB and BoE all had their say.
Forex week in review 24/2026: the ECB hikes, US core inflation cools and peace hopes return
The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points, a softer-than-expected US core CPI eased Fed hike fears, and on Thursday President Trump called off threatened strikes on Iran, saying a deal was close. The dollar index slipped 0.32% to 99.75 after touching its highest since late March.
Forex week in review 23/2026: blowout payrolls put the dollar back above 100
The ceasefire optimism of late May faded as US–Iran talks stalled, and a run of strong US data finished with May payrolls of 172,000 against 85,000 expected. The dollar index rose 1.17% to 100.07, USD/JPY closed above 160 and gold fell 4.6%.
Forex week in review 22/2026: ceasefire headlines whipsaw oil and the dollar
A holiday-thinned week driven by Iran headlines: US strikes early on, then reports of a 60-day ceasefire extension late on. Brent fell about 8%, the dollar index slipped 0.33% to 98.91, and Japan confirmed a record ¥11.7 trillion of yen-buying intervention.
Forex week in review 21/2026: hawkish Fed minutes, a new Fed chair and a pause for breath
After the previous week’s surge, the dollar index finished almost flat at 99.24. Hawkish Fed minutes and Kevin Warsh’s swearing-in kept rate-hike talk alive, while sterling clawed back 0.8% and the Australian dollar slipped after a surprise jump in unemployment.
Forex week in review 20/2026: hot US inflation and a sterling sell-off
Hotter-than-expected US consumer and producer inflation pushed markets to price Fed rate hikes, lifting the Dollar Index 1.41% to 99.28. Sterling was the week’s worst major, down 2.27% against the dollar as a Labour leadership crisis hit gilts, while oil climbed back above $109 with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed.
Forex week in review 19/2026: peace-deal hopes beat a strong payrolls report
Reports that the US and Iran were close to a one-page memorandum to end the war sent Brent below $100 on Wednesday, and the dollar slipped for a second week despite US payrolls beating forecasts. The RBA hiked to 4.35%, and the yen jumped again on suspected intervention.
Forex week in review 18/2026: four central banks hold, Japan steps in
The Bank of Japan, Fed, ECB and Bank of England all held rates, but each with a hawkish tilt as Brent touched a four-year high of $126. On Thursday Japan was reported to have bought yen after USD/JPY hit 160.7, and the pair finished the week down 1.5%.
Forex week in review 17/2026: Hormuz shuts again and the dollar steadies
Friday’s Hormuz reopening lasted a day. With shipping back near a standstill, ship seizures on both sides and the ceasefire extended without talks, oil climbed back above $100 and the dollar ended a three-week losing run. The Dollar Index rose 0.44%; USD/JPY closed near 159.4.
Forex week in review 16/2026: blockade, then a Hormuz reprieve
The week opened with failed Islamabad talks and a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, sending Brent back above $100. It ended with Iran declaring the Strait of Hormuz open and oil falling about 13% in a day. The dollar lost ground for a third week, with AUD/USD up 1.5%.
Forex week in review 15/2026: the ceasefire unwinds the haven dollar
A two-week US–Iran ceasefire agreed on Tuesday evening knocked oil below $100 and stripped the safe-haven premium out of the dollar. The Dollar Index had its biggest weekly fall since January, while EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD posted gains of roughly 1.8% to 2.5%.