Forex week in review 15/2026: the ceasefire unwinds the haven dollar

This was the week the war premium came out of the dollar. On Monday the US Dollar Index (DXY) was trading around 100, carried there by six weeks of safe-haven buying after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on 28 February and Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz. By Friday it had closed at 98.65, down 1.57% on the week according to RTTNews, which FXEmpire called the biggest weekly loss since January. The trigger was a two-week ceasefire agreed on Tuesday evening, US time, and the mechanism was oil.

If you want one sentence to remember: the currencies that had suffered most from expensive energy and fearful markets (the Australian dollar, sterling, the euro) gained most when both of those reversed. The yen, which you might expect to behave like a haven too, barely moved, and the reason for that is the most useful lesson of the week.

The week day by day

Monday 6 April: holiday-thin and still defensive

Easter Monday kept most European markets shut, so liquidity was thin. The main scheduled release was the US ISM services survey. The bigger story was the clock: President Trump had set a deadline of 8pm Eastern on Tuesday for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the market was positioned for escalation. EUR/USD put in its low for the week at 1.1505 on Monday and the Dollar Index its high at 100.29, both according to RTTNews.

Tuesday 7 April: the deadline

USD/JPY traded up to 160.04 on Tuesday, the week's high. Then, about 90 minutes before the deadline, a Pakistan-brokered deal was announced. Pakistan's prime minister had asked for a two-week extension of the deadline; the US agreed to pause strikes on condition that Iran reopened the strait. Iran's Supreme National Security Council accepted the two-week ceasefire but warned that it did not mean the war was over. The White House said a negotiating team led by Vice President JD Vance, with special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, would travel to Islamabad for talks.

Because the announcement came after the European close, the real reaction happened in the Asian session and carried into Wednesday.

Wednesday 8 April: oil collapses, the dollar follows

This was the big day. May WTI fell $18.54 to $94.41 a barrel on NYMEX and June Brent fell $14.52 to $94.75, according to the session report on Stockwatch, after Brent had briefly traded as low as $91. It was Brent's largest one-day percentage decline in six years. Within hours there were reports that Iran had closed the strait again, blaming Israeli attacks in Lebanon. The White House called those reports false, while shipping sources told Reuters that Tehran was keeping its restrictions in place. That doubt is why oil bounced off its lows rather than continuing to fall.

The dollar dropped against all its major peers. The Dollar Index hit its weekly low of 98.53, GBP/USD its weekly high of 1.3486 and USD/JPY its weekly low of 157.88, all on Wednesday.

Two scheduled central-bank items landed in the middle of this. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its Official Cash Rate at 2.25%, saying recent events in the Middle East had materially altered the outlook and that higher fuel prices were pushing up near-term inflation while weakening growth. In the evening, European time, the Fed published the minutes of its 17–18 March meeting. They showed many participants still expecting to cut rates eventually if inflation fell as expected, but some arguing that persistent oil-driven inflation could call for rate increases, and some favouring a two-sided description of future decisions. In other words, the Fed was openly discussing hikes as well as cuts.

Thursday 9 April: a pause and some old data

Thursday was calmer. Reuters described the dollar as struggling to rebound, with modest moves overall. The US data were backward-looking: the third estimate of fourth-quarter GDP was revised down to 0.5% annualised (from 0.7% in the second estimate and 1.4% in the first), and February core PCE inflation rose 0.4% on the month, in line with consensus. AUD/USD reached its weekly high of 0.7096.

Friday 10 April: CPI and a weekend of talks

Friday's US consumer price index for March showed what the war had done to prices. Headline CPI rose 0.9% on the month and 3.3% on the year, up from 2.4% in February, both exactly as forecast. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% on the month against 0.3% expected, and 2.6% on the year against 2.7% expected. Headline inflation was being driven by energy; the underlying measure was, if anything, a touch softer than feared.

The market read that as no reason to rebuild dollar longs. FXEmpire noted that the 10-year Treasury yield actually rose to 4.321% on Friday, yet the dollar still finished lower. EUR/USD made its weekly high of 1.1740 on Friday and closed at 1.1720. Everyone's attention then shifted to the weekend, when the US and Iranian delegations were due to meet in Islamabad.

Pair by pair

EUR/USD: +1.76%

From 1.1517 at the previous Friday's close to 1.1720, with a range of 1.1505 to 1.1740. FXEmpire noted the pair broke back above its 200-day moving average during the week. The euro area is a large net importer of energy, so an oil shock hurts it more than it hurts the US, which is a net exporter. When oil falls sharply, that relative damage is partly reversed, and the euro is one of the first currencies to benefit. If you are new to the pair, our guide to currency pairs explained covers why EUR/USD rising means the euro strengthening against the dollar, not the other way round.

GBP/USD: +2.03%

Cable rallied from 1.3194 to 1.3462, with a low of 1.3177 on Monday and a high of 1.3486 on Wednesday. Sterling has been sensitive to the energy story for the same reason as the euro: the UK imports a lot of its energy and its inflation outlook moves with gas and fuel prices.

AUD/USD: +2.48%

The Australian dollar was the strongest of the four majors tracked here, rising from 0.6891 to 0.7062 and briefly trading at 0.7096 on Thursday. The Aussie is the market's favourite liquid proxy for global risk appetite. When the mood flips from "war escalating" to "ceasefire", money comes out of defensive positions and the Aussie tends to move most.

USD/JPY: −0.18%

This is the interesting one. In a classic risk-off episode the yen strengthens as Japanese investors bring money home and carry trades are closed. This year has not worked like that. Japan imports almost all of its energy, so expensive oil weakens the yen, and US interest rates remain far above Japanese rates, so holding yen costs money. The pair traded up to 160.04 on Tuesday, dropped to 157.88 on Wednesday as the ceasefire hit, then drifted back to close at 159.30, almost unchanged. The ceasefire took some pressure off the yen via oil, but the rate gap did not change. We explain why that gap matters in swap and overnight financing.

Gold: higher for a third week

RTTNews reported spot gold at $4,748.31 on Friday morning, set for a third straight weekly gain. Gold had struggled while the war pushed up oil and inflation expectations, because higher expected interest rates make a non-yielding asset less attractive. A ceasefire that lowers oil prices also eases fears of Fed hikes, which helps gold, and a weaker dollar makes it cheaper for buyers outside the US.

Why the dollar fell when the news was good

New traders often assume that "good news" for the world is bad for the dollar and "bad news" is good for it. That rule of thumb worked this week, but it is worth understanding why rather than memorising it.

The dollar is the world's main funding and reserve currency. When something frightening happens, global investors sell riskier assets and hold dollars, and companies that borrowed in dollars rush to secure them. In this war there was a second channel: the US produces more oil than it consumes, so an oil shock damages its trade position far less than it damages Europe, the UK or Japan. Both channels pushed the dollar up from late February.

The ceasefire reversed both at once. Oil fell sharply, so the relative damage to energy importers shrank, and fear receded, so the haven demand unwound. That is why the dollar fell against the euro, sterling and the Aussie by around 2% each in a single week.

Notice what did not drive it: US interest rates. Yields actually rose on Friday. When the dollar falls while yields rise, that tells you the move is about risk and flows, not about the Fed. Our guide to how central banks and interest rates move currencies explains the usual rate channel; this week was a reminder that it is not the only one.

What the inflation data meant

The March CPI is a useful example of the difference between headline and core inflation. Headline inflation jumped from 2.4% to 3.3% in a single month, mostly because of energy. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, was 2.6% and slightly below forecast.

Central banks care about both, but in different ways. A spike in headline inflation from oil can fade quickly if oil falls. A rise in core inflation suggests prices are rising more broadly and is harder to reverse. The Fed's March minutes showed officials worrying exactly about this: that higher energy costs could pass through into core prices. A softer core print reduced that worry slightly, which is one reason the dollar did not get a boost from a 3.3% headline number.

There is also the question of surprise. The headline figure matched the forecast exactly, so it was already priced. Markets move on the gap between the actual number and what was expected, not on the number itself. We cover this in more detail in how economic data moves forex.

Trading a headline-driven week: what it looked like from the inside

Weeks like this are hard for retail traders, and it is worth being honest about why.

The most important move happened outside normal European hours, on a political announcement with no fixed release time. Anyone short EUR/USD or AUD/USD into Tuesday evening woke up to a gap. Stop-loss orders do not protect you at your chosen price in a gap; they are filled at the next available price, which can be much worse. Our guide to slippage explains how that works and why it is more common around news.

Oil's 13–16% one-day fall also shows how leverage cuts both ways. As an illustrative example only: a trader holding a WTI CFD position with a notional value of $10,000 on 10:1 leverage (the ESMA retail maximum for commodities other than gold) would have put up about $1,000 of margin. A 16% move against that position is a $1,600 loss, more than the entire margin posted, in one session. That is how accounts get closed out, and it is why our guide to leverage and margin puts so much emphasis on position size rather than on direction. Most retail CFD accounts lose money (brokers' own disclosures typically range from about 61% to 89%), and weeks with large gaps are a big part of the reason.

Spreads also widen in moments like Wednesday's Asian open, because liquidity providers pull back when they cannot price the risk. The price you see on a chart is the mid or the bid; the price you pay as a buyer is the ask. Our guide to spreads and commissions walks through how much that can cost on a fast day.

What this week teaches

• Know which channel is driving a currency. This week the dollar fell while US yields rose. That combination points to risk and flows, not monetary policy.
• Not every haven behaves like a haven. The yen did not strengthen during the war because Japan imports its energy and Japanese rates are low. Context beats rules of thumb.
• Forecast-matching data rarely moves markets. Headline CPI at 3.3% was exactly as expected. The small miss on core mattered more.
• Geopolitical news has no release time. Scheduled data comes with a calendar; ceasefires do not. If you hold positions through a known deadline, size them for a gap.
• Commodity moves feed straight into FX. An oil shock is a currency shock for importers like the euro area, the UK and Japan.

Scheduled next week (13–17 April)

These are scheduled events only. They tell you when volatility is more likely, not which way prices will go. Our guide on how to use an economic calendar explains how to read them.

• Weekend: US and Iranian delegations were due to meet in Islamabad for talks on ending the war.
• Monday 13 April: OPEC monthly oil market report; US existing home sales.
• Tuesday 14 April: US producer prices (PPI) for March; China trade balance for March; IEA oil market report; IMF World Economic Outlook briefing; speeches from ECB President Lagarde and BoE Governor Bailey among others.
• Wednesday 15 April: Fed Beige Book; euro area industrial production.
• Thursday 16 April: China first-quarter GDP and March activity data; UK GDP for February; Australia's March jobs report; US industrial production and jobless claims; minutes of the ECB's March meeting.
• Friday 17 April: speeches from Fed officials including Christopher Waller.
• All week: the two-week ceasefire clock keeps running.

Sources

• RTTNews: Dollar plunges as US-Iran ceasefire halts haven bids (weekly roundup, week ended 10 April)
• FXEmpire: DXY breaks lower as CPI fails to lift Fed outlook
• Stockwatch: oil market report, 8 April 2026
• Federal Reserve: minutes of the FOMC meeting, 17–18 March 2026
• Trading Economics: RBNZ holds key rate steady
• RTTNews: Gold set for another weekly gain
• Newsquawk weekly economic calendar, 6–10 April 2026
• Newsquawk weekly economic calendar, 13–17 April 2026